On average you should devote 10 hours each week to this class.

Week 1    Introduction

        Wickham and Grolemund. 2017. R for Data Science.

                Handout: Bashir 2019 “Getting Started in R – Tidyverse Edition”

                Armstrong, et al. 2014. Chapter 2.

Political Science And Methodology In Perspective

Week 2            黃紀，2013，〈政治學計量方法的回顧與前瞻〉，載於 吳玉山、林繼文、冷則剛 主編《政治學的回顧與前瞻》，台北：五南圖書，第3章，頁39-63。

                        Box-Steffensmeier, Janet, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier. 2008. “Political Science Methodology.” Pp. 3-31 in The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology ed. Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Aldrich, John H., James E. Alt, and Arthur Lupia. 2008. “The EITM Approach: Origins and Interpretations.” in The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Pp. 828-843.

Rogowski, Ronald. 2016. “The Rise of Experimentation in Political Science.” In Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Science, ed. Robert Scott and Martis Buchmann with Stephen Kosslyn. Wiley.

Recommended readings:

     Granato, Jim, and Frank Scioli. 2004. “Puzzles, Proverbs, and Omega Matrices: The Scientific and Social Significance of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models (EITM).” Perspectives on Politics 2(2): 313-323.

Homework: find the latest issue of the following journals, copy table of contents and classify each article according to its subfield and methodology

                              American Political Science Review

Political Analysis (annual from 1989 to 1998; quarterly since volume 8, winter 2000). Homepage of the Society for Political Methodology and the Political Methodology Section of the APSA:

                              Sociological Methodology (annual since 1969)

Week 3  Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday

1.      The Structuring of Empirical Inquiry

1. General Research Design (I): Units of Observation & Levels of Analysis

Week 4    黃紀，2020，〈第2章  調查研究設計〉，載於 陳陸輝主編《民意調查研究》(read pp. 31-42)。

黃紀，2001，〈一致與分裂投票：方法論之探討〉，《人文及社會科學集刊》，

13(5): 541-574。

Robinson, W. S. 1950. “Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals.” American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357.

King, Gary, Ori Rosen, and Martin A. Tanner. 2004. “Information in Ecological Inference: An Introduction.” Pp. 1-12 in their Ecological Inference: New Methodological Strategies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

King, Gary, and Molly Roberts. 2016. “R Package ‘ei’ User’s Manual.”

Tam Cho, Wendy K., and Charles F. Manski. 2008. “Cross-Level/Ecological Inference.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Pp. 547-569.

Applications:

黃紀、吳重禮，2003，〈政治分析與研究方法：論2002年立法院行使考試院正副院長同意權之投票模式〉，《問題與研究》，42(1): 1-17。

                        黃紀、周應龍，2013，〈2012年總統與立委併選的一致與分裂投票〉，載於 陳陸輝 主編《2012年總統與立委選舉：變遷與延續》，台北：五南圖書出版公司，第4章，頁85-124。

                 Agrregate Electoral Data Archive: e.g. Election Results in Taiwan since 1991

                        黃紀教授政治地緣資料系統 TPGIS 2.0：http://tpgis2.nccu.edu.tw/

Recommended readings:

King, Gary. 1997. A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Plescia, Carolina. 2016. Split-Ticket Voting in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: A Theoretical and Methodological Investigation. UK: ECPR Press.

2. General Research Design (II): Time Dimension

Week 5    黃紀，2016，〈第2章  調查研究設計〉(read pp. 43-59)。

Huang, Chi. 2018. “Testing Partisan Effects on Economic Perceptions: A Panel Design Approach.” Journal of Electoral Studies《選舉研究》25(2): 89-115.

Huang, Chi. 2019. “Generation Effects? Evolution of Independence-Unification Views in Taiwan, 1996-2016.” Electoral Studies 58: 103-112.

Applications:

Hill, Martha S. 1992. The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID): A User’s Guide. Newbury Park: Sage. Pp. 1-11.

Panel Survey Data Archive: e.g. TIGCR-PPS 2018 & TIGCR-PPS 2019

            台灣政經傳播研究中心 TIGCR Archives：https://tigcr.nccu.edu.tw/tw/surveys/center

Recommended readings:

黃紀，2005，〈投票穩定與變遷之分析方法：定群類別資料之馬可夫鍊模型〉，《選舉研究》，12(1): 1-37。

2.     Spatial Theory, Empirical Models and Measurement

Week 6   Building Theories: A Spatial (Geometric) Perspective

                Downs. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy.

Riker, William H., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1968 “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.” APSR 62(1): 25-42.

Hinich and Munger. 1997. Chapters 1-5.

Recommended readings:

謝復生，2013。

Enelow, James M. And Melvin J. Hinich. 1984. The Spatial Theor of Voting: An Introduction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Congleton, Robert D. 2019. "Rational Choice and Politics." In The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice. Vol. 1, eds. Roger D. Congleton, Bernard Grofman, and Stefan Voigt. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chapter 1.

Empirical Spatial Models

Week 7       Measuring the Electorate’s Ideal Points with Issue Scales: Classical Test Theory (CTT)

劉長萱，2015，〈古典測量理論〉，載 瞿海源 等，第10章。

Jackman, Simon. 2008. “Measurement.” in The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. (Read pp. 119-135)

Armstrong, et al. 2014. Chapters 1 & 3.

Week 8       Measuring Ideal Points with Categorical Data: An Introduction to Item Response Theory (IRT)

王文中，2015，〈試題反應理論〉，載 瞿海源 等，第11章。

Jackman, Simon. 2008. “Measurement.”  (Read pp. 135-139).

Thissen, David. 2015. "Psychometrics: Item Response Theory." In International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences (Second Edition), ed. James D. Wright. Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 436-9.

Recommended readings:

Huang, Chi, Hung-chung Wang, and Chang-chih Lin. 2013. “Knowledge of the Electoral System and Voting: Taiwan’s 2008 and 2012 Legislative Elections.” Issues & Studies 49(4): 1-45.

王文中，2015，〈試題反應理論 Item Response Theory, IRT〉，載 瞿海源 等，第11章。

Recommended readings:

Huang, Chi, Hung-chung Wang, and Chang-chih Lin. 2013. “Knowledge of the Electoral System and Voting: Taiwan’s 2008 and 2012 Legislative Elections.” Issues & Studies 49(4): 1-45.

Week 9   Measuring Elites’ Ideal Points with Observed Choices

Poole, Keith T., and Howard Rosenthal. 1985. "A Spatial Model for Legislative Roll Call Analysis." American Journal of Political Science 29(2): 357-84.

Hare, Christopher, and Keith T. Poole. 2019. "Estimates of the Spatial Voting Model." In The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice. Vol. 2, eds. Roger D. Congleton, Bernard Grofman, and Stefan Voigt. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chapter 40, pp. 819-27.

Everson, Phil, Rick Valelly, Arjun Vishwanath, and Jim Wiseman. 2016. "NOMINATE and American Political Development: A Primer." Studies in American Political Development 30(2): 97-115.

Armstrong, et al. 2014. Chapter 6 & Section 7.2.

Imai, Kosuke, James Lo, and Jonathan Olmsted. 2016. "Fast Estimation of Ideal Points with Massive Data." American Political Science Review 110(4): 631-56.

Recommended readings:

Clinton, Joshua, Simon Jackman, and Douglas Rivers. 2004. “The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Data.” APSR 98(2): 355-70.

Poole, Keith T., and Howard Rosenthal. 2007. Ideology & Congress (Second, revised edition of Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting). New York: Taylor & Francis.

Week 10  Congruence (or Divergence) between Elites & the Mass

Hare, Christopher, and Keith T. Poole. 2019. "Estimates of the Spatial Voting Model." In The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice. Vol. 2, eds. Roger D. Congleton, Bernard Grofman, and Stefan Voigt. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chapter 40, pp. 827-32.

Jessee, Stephen A. 2009. “Spatial Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election.” American Political Science Review 103(1): 59-81.

Treier, Shawn, and D. Sunshine Hillygus. 2009. "The Nature of Political Ideology in the Contemporary Electorate." The Public Opinion Quarterly 73(4): 679-703.

Recommended readings:

Carroll, Royce, and Hiroki Kubo. 2018. "Polarization and Ideological Congruence between Parties and Supporters in Europe." Public Choice 176(1): 247-65.

Week 11  11/26       Midterm oral report

3.        Causality: Counterfactual Perspective

Causal Inference (I): Basics of the Counterfactual (or Rubin) Model

Week 12          黃紀，2010，〈因果推論與效應評估：區段識別法及其於「選制效應」之應用〉，《選舉研究》，17(2): 103-134。（讀第1、2節）

Morgan, Stephen L., and Christopher Winship. 2015. “The Counterfactual Model.” Chapter 2 in Counterfactuals and Causal Inference.

Rubin, Donald B. 1974. “Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies.” Journal of Educational Psychology 66(5): 688-701.

Recommended readings:

Rosenbaum, Paul R. 2005. “Observational Study.” Pp. 1451-1462 in Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science, eds. Brian S. Everitt and David C. Howell. Chichester: Wiley.

Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2008. “The Neyman-Rubin Models of Causal Inference and Estimation via Matching Methods.” Chapter 11 in The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Pp. 271-299.

Causal Inference (II):  Experimental Designs

Week 13          Campbell & Stanley, pp. 1-34.

Druckman, James N., Donald P. Green, James H. Kuklinski, and Arthur Lupia. 2011. “Experimentation in Political Science.” and “Experiments: An Introduction to Core Concepts.” in Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science.  Pp.3-26.

Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green. 2012. Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.  “Introduction” Pp. 1-17.

Blair, Graeme, and Kosuke Imai. 2012. “Statistical Analysis of List Experiments.” Political Analysis 20(1): 47-77.

Imai, Chapter 2 (Sections 2.1-2.4), Sections 4.3 & 7.1;

陳春敏、陳振宇，2015，〈實驗研究法〉，載 瞿海源 等，第5章。

Recommended readings:

黃紀，2017，〈TEDS網路調查實驗平台第一次測試報告〉，科技部專題研究計畫〈2016年至2020年「臺灣選舉與民主化調查」四年期研究規劃（1/4）〉（MOST 105-2420-H-004 -015 -SS4）。

Blair, Graeme, et al. 2020. “R Package ‘list’ User’s Manual.”

Lavrakas, Paul J., Michael W. Traugott, Courtney Kennedy, Allyson L. Holbrook, Edith D. de Leeuw, and Brady T. West. 2019. Experimental Methods in Survey Research: Techniques that Combine Random Sampling with Random Assignment. Hoboken: Wiley.

Causal Inference (III):  Natural Experiment with Regression Discontinuity (RD)

Week 14              Dunning, Thad. 2012. Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Chapters 1-5;

Lee, David S., and Thomas Lemieux. 2015. “Regression Discontinuity Designs in Social Sciences.” Chapter 14 in The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference, ed. Henning Best and Christof Wolf. London: Sage.

Calonico, Sebastian, Matias D. Cattaneo, and Rocio Titiunik. 2015. “rdrobust: An R Package for Robust Inference in Regression-Discontinuity Designs.” R Journal 7(1): 38-51.

(see The Stata Journal 2017 17(2): 372-404 for an updated Stata version of rdrobust)

Recommended readings:

Cattaneo, Matias D., Nicolas Idrobo, and Rocio Titiunik. 2020. A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Causal Inference (IV):  Quasi-Experimental Designs with Interrupted Time Series

Week 15       Campbell & Stanley, pp. 34-61;

Shadish, Cook, & Campbell, Chapters 4-6;

黃紀、林長志，2013，〈併選對投票率的影響：因果效應分析〉，載於 陳陸輝 主編《2012年總統與立委選舉：變遷與延續》，台北：五南圖書，第3章，頁47-83。

Huang, Chi, Ming-feng Kuo, and Hans Stockton. 2016. “The Consequences of MMM on Party Systems.” Chapter 1 in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context: Taiwan, Japan, and Beyond, eds. Nathan Batto, Chi Huang, Alexander Tan, and Gary Cox. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.

Causal Inference (V):  Quasi-Experimental Designs with Differences-in-Differences (DD)

Week 16       Angrist & Pischke, 2015. Chapter 5 “Differences-in-Differences”;

Card, David, and Alan B. Krueger. 2000. “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply.” American Economic Review 90(5): 1397-1420.

Huang, Chi (黃紀). 2018. “Testing Partisan Effects on Economic Perceptions: A Panel Design Approach.” Journal of Electoral Studies《選舉研究》25(2): 89-115.

Causal Inference (VI):  Structural Equation Models (SEM)

Week 17            Huang, Chi. 2015. “Endogenous Regressors in Nonlinear Probability Models: A Generalized Structural Equations Modeling Approach.” Journal of Electoral Studies 《選舉研究》，22(1): 1-33.

黃紀、王德育，2016，《質變數與受限依變數的迴歸分析》，第八章第五節〈因果效應模型〉頁330-351。

Recommended readings:

郭銘峰、黃紀、王鼎銘，2012，〈日本眾議院選舉政黨重複提名策略與效應：選區層次之分析〉，《政治科學論叢》，51: 161-216。

Pearl, Judea. 2012. “The Causal Foundations of Structural Equation Modeling.” In Handbook of Structural Equation Modeling, ed. Rick H. Hoyle. New York: The Guilford Press, pp. 68-91.

Kline, Rex B. 2016. Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling. New York: Guilford.

Week 18   1/14 Term paper oral report

※ 1/15            Term paper due ※

Vienne Wang

viennewang624@gmail.com

Midterm oral report    10%

Term paper           50%

Participation           20%

Exercises & Quizzes    20%

Armstrong, David A., et al. 2014. Analyzing Spatial Models of Choice and Judgment with R. Boca Raton: CRC Press.

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier. eds. 2008. The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Campbell, Donald T., and Julian C. Stanley. 1963. Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.  

Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.

Hinich, Melvin J., and Michael C. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Morgan, Stephen L., and Christopher Winship. 2015. Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Method and Principles for Social Science, 2^nd, edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Wickham, Hadley, and Garrett Grolemund. 2017. R for Data Science. Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly. Free electronic version available on the website: https://r4ds.had.co.nz/ 

黃紀、王德育，2016，《質變數與受限依變數的迴歸分析》，台北：五南。

陳陸輝 主編，2020，《民意調查》，台北：五南。

瞿海源、畢恆達、劉長萱、楊國樞 主編，2015，《社會及行為科學研究法（一）：總論與量化研究法》，台北：東華書局。

謝復生，2013，《實證政治理論》，台北：五南圖書出版公司。